Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Tories Pulling Ahead?

Ok. I'm weak. Back to the British General Election. And back to more anecdotal evidence that things are not going well for Labour.

First up. Labour finally admitting they would do a deal with the Scottish National Party. The evidence from polling is that the Tories will have the most seats after this election. But that Labour will be better placed to form arrangements commanding a majority in the House of Commons. Primarily with SNP. So, I hear you say, what does it matter if they attest to that publicly?

First, because it is a public surrender to SNP in Scotland. Secondly, because Labour are admitting they can't stop the bleed to UKIP in England. And finally, because it suggests Labour's focus now is solely on defeating apathy in their remaining core vote.

I imagine that Labour's private polling last week told them that their core vote is so disillusioned that it gave rise to worry that Labour might not even win enough seats to do a deal with SNP. So, Labour had publicly to give their core vote a reason to turn out. I know, this is way out there nerdy stuff. I live for it.

Second up, other polling indicates that Green support among students has fallen from 28% to 15%. And that fall would be shifting to Labour, right? Wrong. Apparently Labour and the Tories are now joint favorites among students. What?

Look. I'm a Tory. But even I know that students don't naturally gravitate to the Tories. Especially not when Labour are pledging to cut Tuition Fees from £9,000 to £6,000. A double what gives?

So, two weeks before polling day, Labour return to their core issue of the NHS, where the Tories have already outbid them. And the Conservatives keep running replays of the Nicola Sturgeon speech, where she declares she is going to rule Ed Miliband and England with an iron (and socialist) rod.
None of this is good for Labour ...