Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Labour Panic (2)

Yet more evidence that what certain polls (and Labour advisers) are saying about Labour's chances in the UK General Election is not being backed up by experience on the doorstep.

Folks who are embarrassed to say to pollsters they are abandoning Labour for UKIP or the Tories aren't so squeamish when it comes to shutting a door in the face of a Labour canvasser.

Low turnout does not favor Labour. Incumbent governments, unless they are virulently hated by their own supporters, tend to do better at getting out their core voters. Especially if that incumbent government is Tory, whose supporters are always and generally better at turning out than Labour voters.

So, apathy on the doorstep is not good for Labour. Neither is the fact that the new electoral registration system has 'lost' almost a million voters who are natural Labour targets.