Saturday, May 09, 2015

How Did The Tories Win?

There is much guff being written about how the numbers conspired to give the Tories an overall majority.

It's guff because, in the main, it is being offered by those talking heads who told us, right up to 10pm election night, that this was a tight election.

Here are the thoughts of someone who never thought this was a tight election.

First off, yes the Liberal Democrat vote collapsed. But no, it did not go directly to UKIP. Nor did it go in the main to Labour. This latter movement occurred in 2011. In disgust at the LibCon Coalition.

It went in the main to the Tories. Which is what led to the Tory gains from the LibDems in the South and the South West.

There was some movement from UKIP to the Tories. Which helped the Tories in the North of England. But there was a huge movement from Labour to UKIP in the North. Which helped the Tories in the North even more.

This is why pundits think there was a move from LD to UKIP. They don't get it was several moves. LD to Tory, and a little to Labour. Labour to UKIP, with a little UKIP to Tory.

Net result? LD collapse. Allowing Tories to gain in SW and South. UKIP do well on votes, but mostly from Labour in North, allowing Tories to win there. UKIP get votes, but not seats. Labour suffer, especially in North. Overall majority for Tories.

And now, I'm going to have a couple of Aspirins ...